نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، واحد الیگودرز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، الیگودرز، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه ریاضی، واحد الیگودرز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، الیگودرز، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The central problem addressed in this study is the examination of the existing gap in explicating the nonlinear and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on the formation of housing “boom–bust” regimes, with particular emphasis on the decisive role of structural and spatial heterogeneity across the provinces of the country. To this end, based on annual data converted into quarterly series using a shape-preserving interpolation algorithm for the period 2007–2023, an optimal uncertainty index was first computed. Subsequently, provinces were classified into homogeneous clusters through the K-Means algorithm, and the synchronicity of cycles was assessed using the Markov Switching Panel (MS-Panel) approach. The findings reveal that the synchronization of business cycles with uncertainty is not uniform; rather, it is contingent upon the spatial hierarchy of shock transmission and the market tolerance threshold across different geographies. While the capital city, as the leading driver of the housing market, exhibits immediate sensitivity and high synchronicity with uncertainty shocks, surrounding metropolitan areas are characterized by pronounced “recessionary inertia,” converging with national cycles only in the event of structural breaks and spillovers of inflationary expectations. In contrast, less-developed provinces display a “discrete” pattern, reacting solely to mega-shocks that exceed critical thresholds, whereas the central regions of the country demonstrate unstable boom patterns and non-systematic relationships. These results substantiate the argument that uniform national policies, when implemented without accounting for the hierarchy of development and differentiated transmission mechanisms across provinces, lack the requisite effectiveness.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)