نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Chronic inflation poses a major challenge to Iran’s economy, necessitating effective financial instruments for inflation risk hedging. Standard Parallel Salam Bonds (SPSBs), an Islamic financial tool backed by real assets, show potential for capital preservation amid inflation. This research investigates their inflation hedging capability on the Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) using monthly data (2014-2024) for Salam Bonds across food, metals, and energy commodities, alongside CPI. The study employs the Markov Switching Econometric Model to analyze Salam Bond returns across normal and high inflation regimes, acknowledging the non-linear nature of commodity markets. Empirical findings show statistically significant positive coefficients for Salam Bond returns relative to inflation across all commodity groups. However, the magnitude of these coefficients varies by regime and commodity. During normal inflation, all markets offer positive returns exceeding inflation, with energy Salam Bonds performing best. In high inflation, food and metals markets see reduced returns, while energy bonds retain some hedging ability. Overall, SPSBs offer a complementary role in inflation risk management but are not a complete standalone hedging solution. The results highlight the need for developing more diverse financial instruments and improving Islamic bond designs tailored to Iran’s inflationary environment. This research contributes to understanding Islamic finance in managing persistent inflation, offering insights for policymakers and investors seeking to protect capital value in challenging economic conditions. The findings suggest a nuanced approach, emphasizing diversification and innovative financial product development to effectively counter long-term inflationary pressures.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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