نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران
2 دانشیار و عضو هیات علمی دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Afghanistan, like other developing and poor countries, receives a significant volume of remittances annually. Remittances can have substantial effects on economic variables. This study aims to investigate the impact of remittances on Afghanistan's economic growth using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach in both short-run and long-run horizons. The bounds test results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium relationship, and the error correction coefficient (-0.40) indicates a relatively high short-run adjustment speed toward the long-run path. Findings reveal a clear distinction between short-run and long-run effects. Remittance flows have a positive and significant impact in both horizons, but their effect diminishes in the long run. Gross fixed capital formation is identified as the strongest and most stable driver of long-run growth. International financial aid also has a positive effect, with a larger impact in the long run. In contrast, foreign direct investment shows a negative and significant effect in both horizons, possibly due to concentration in resource-based sectors, weak institutions, and lack of productive linkages with the domestic economy. Inflation negatively affects growth in both short and long runs. Finally, the employment rate shows no significant long-run relationship with growth, likely indicating issues such as hidden unemployment or low labor productivity.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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