نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد نظری دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد برنامه ریزی و توسعه اقتصادی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In contemporary Iran, where fertility has fallen below replacement level and the age structure is gradually shifting toward population ageing, households simultaneously face tightening living conditions and rising costs of living. In this context, understanding how childbearing affects household consumption patterns is particularly important from both welfare and population-policy perspectives. Nevertheless, the domestic empirical literature lacks evidence on this relationship at the level of consumption categories. This study investigates the causal impact of childbearing on real per capita household consumption across twelve expenditure groups using a quasi-experimental fixed-effects difference-in-differences design. The analysis uses panel data extracted from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of the Statistical Center of Iran for 2021–2024, with 2024 defined as the childbearing event year; households are accordingly classified into treatment and control groups. The model is estimated controlling for a set of key household socioeconomic characteristics, and identification validity is assessed through tests of the parallel trends assumption. The results indicate that childbearing leads to a statistically significant decline in real per capita consumption in the food and housing categories, while per capita spending on “miscellaneous goods and services” increases significantly. Overall, the findings suggest that childbearing is associated with short-run reallocation and compression of the household consumption basket, implying that population and welfare policy design should explicitly account for heterogeneous effects across consumption groups.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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