محاسبه شاخص جهانی‌شدن اقتصادی در ایران و تاثیر آن بر شاخص توسعه انسانی(HDI)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

جهانی‌شدن پدیده‌ای است که بروز آن در عصر حاضر موجب تغییر و تحولات بسیاری در زندگی انسان‌ها شده است. در زمینه تاثیرات جهانی‌شدن بر رشد و توسعه اقتصادی و شاخص توسعه انسانی، نظرات متفاوتی وجود دارد. برخی معتقدند که جهانی‌شدن باعث می‌شود تا بازارهای جهانی توسعه پیدا کنند که این موجب افزایش تبادل تجاری و سرمایه‌گذاری بین کشورها شده و در ادامه، شاخص توسعه انسانی بهبود می‌یابد. در مقابل، گروهی دیگر معتقد هستند که افزایش مبادلات و سطح رقابت بین کشورها باعث می‌شود تا شرکت‌ها فقط بدنبال حداکثر کردن سود خود باشند و به بهبود شرایط نیروی کار توجه کمتری نمایند، و این می‌تواند باعث کاهش شاخص‌های سلامتی و افزایش فقر شود. در این مطالعه، شاخص جهانی‌ شدن اقتصادی با استفاده از روش آنتروپی شانون و روش تجمیع حسابی محاسبه شده است. نتایج محاسبات نشان می‌دهد که شاخص جهانی شدن اقتصاد تا سال 1390 روند صعودی داشته، بین سال‌های 97-1390 در نوسان بوده و از سال 1397 به بعد، روند نزولی در پیش گرفته است. هچنین در این پژوهش، اثر شاخص جهانی‌شدن اقتصاد بر شاخص توسعه انسانی در ایران برای دوره  1400-1375 مورد بررسی قرارگرفته است. برآورد مدل با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) توزیعی انجام شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل نشان داده که شاخص جهانی‌شدن اقتصاد بر شاخص توسعه انسانی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری داشته است.  دیگر متغیرهای مدل، یعنی تولید ناخالص داخلی، مخارج دولت، نسبت جمعیت شهری به جمعیت کل و صادرات کالا و خدمات تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار و تورم تاثیری منفی بر شاخص توسعه انسانی دارد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود که ایران، با ایجاد و برقراری ارتباط موثرتری با دنیا، شرایط لازم برای بهبود شاخص توسعه انسانی را فراهم آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Calculation of the Economic Globalization Index in Iran and its Impact on Human Development Index (HDI)

نویسندگان [English]

  • zarir negintaji 1
  • saba esmailinia 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Master of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

Globalization is a phenomenon that has caused many changes in people's lives. There are different opinions regarding the effects of globalization on economic growth and development and the human development index. Some believe that globalization will cause global markets to develop, which will increase trade and investment exchanges between countries and improve the Human Development Index. In contrast, others argue that increased exchanges and competition between countries will only make companies want to maximize their profits and pay less attention to improving labor conditions, which can reduce health indicators and increase poverty. It should be noted that the economic globalization index was calculated using the shannon entropy method and simple additive weighting method. The results of the study show that the economic globalization index had an upward trend until 1390, fluctuated between 1390-1397 and started a downward trend from 1397 onwards. In this research, the effect of the economic globalization index on the human development index in Iran for the period 1375-1400 has been investigated. The estimation of the model has been done using the autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL). Also, the results show that the economic globalization index had a positive and significant effect on the human development index. Other variables of the model i.e. gross domestic product, government expenditure, ratio of urban population to total population and export of goods, services have a positive and significant effect, and inflation has a negative effect on the human development index.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Globalization Index
  • Human Development Index
  • Shannon entropy method
  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag
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