تعیین‌کننده‌های تاب‌آوری اقتصادی کشورهای نفتی و غیرنفتی خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران،

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

در مطالعه حاضر به طور تجربی عوامل مؤثر بر شاخص میزان تاب‌آوری اقتصادی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه طی دوره زمانی 2020-2000 ارزیابی شد. در این راستا، ابتدا شاخص تاب‌آوری اقتصادی بر مبنای چندین زیرشاخص محاسبه و سپس تأثیر عوامل مؤثر بر این شاخص برای کشورهای نفتی و غیرنفتی خاورمیانه مورد  بررسی قرار گرفت . عوامل مؤثر بر تاب‎آوری اقتصادی شامل متغیرهای فناوری، تولید نفت، درجه باز بودن اقتصاد، جهانی شدن سیاسی، جهانی شدن فرهنگی و مخارج دولت بود. برای دستیابی به اهداف مطالعه از رویکرد همجمعی حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا استفاده شد. نتایج تحلیل همجمعی حاکی از وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرهای تحقیق بود. براساس نتایج بدست آمده به جز متغیر مخارج دولت سایر متغیرهای ذکر شده بر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی کشورهای نفتی خاورمیانه در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبت داشته‌اند. البته، بین متغیر تولید نفت و تاب‌آوری اقتصادی کشورهای نفتی تأثیر معنی‌داری یافت نشد. ضریب متغیر جهانی شدن سیاسی بیشترین اثر مثبت را بر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی کشورهای نفتی دارد. متغیرهای درجه باز بودن اقتصاد و جهانی شدن فرهنگی نیز از این حیث به ترتیب در رتبه‌های بعدی قرار دارند. این در حالی است که متغیر جهانی شدن فرهنگی بیشترین اثر مثبت را بر میزان تاب‌آوری اقتصادی کشورهای غیرنفتی در بلندمدت دارد. همچنین، تأثیر معنی‌داری بین متغیر مخارج دولت و تاب‌آوری کشورهای غیرنفتی مشاهده نشد. با توجه به نتایج، انتظار می‌رود در نتیجه‌ی جهانی شدن و افزایش ارتباطات سیاسی، تجاری و فرهنگی، جریان مبادله اطلاعات مالی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، تجاری و تکنولوژیکی بین کشورها تقویت و با افزایش بهره‌وری و بهره بردن کشورها از مزایای تجارت آزاد تاب‌آوری اقتصادی بهبود یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determinants of Economic Resilience of Middle East Oil and Non-oil Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kourosh Kamkar Hafshejani 1
  • saeid Daei-Karimzadeh 2
  • Hossein Sharifi Renani 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the present study, the effective factors on the index of economic resilience in the countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2020 were experimentally evaluated. Firstly, the economic resilience index was calculated based on several sub-indices, and then the effect of factors affecting this index was examined for the oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East. The factors affecting economic resilience included technological variables, oil production, economic openness, political globalization, cultural globalization, and government spending. A dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration approach was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results of the cointegration analysis indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. Based on the results obtained, except for the variable of government expenditure, the other variables mentioned had a positive effect on the economic resilience of the Middle East oil countries in the long run. However, no significant effect was found between the variable of oil production and the economic resilience of oil countries. The variable coefficient of political globalization has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of oil countries. The variables of economic openness and cultural globalization are also in the next ranks in this respect. This is despite the fact that the cultural globalization variable has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of non-oil countries in the long run. Similarly, no significant effect was observed between the government expenditure variable and the resilience of non-oil countries. According to the results, it is expected that as a result of globalization and increasing political, commercial, and cultural communication, the flow of financial, economic, social, commercial, and technological information exchange between countries will be strengthened and economic resilience will be improved by increasing the number of countries with a high level of cultural globalization.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic resilience
  • Dynamic ordinary least squares
  • Political globalization
  • Cultural globalization
  • Middle East
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