نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران
2 دانشیار جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه یزد
3 عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی، تهران، ایران.
4 استادیار، روش های آماری و مدلسازی جمعیت، موسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران.
5 گروه اقتصاد-دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری-دانشگاه یزد-یزد- ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Propellants and effective variables on the future of Labor supply in Iran's labor market with a combined Delphi approach and structural analysis
Abstract
The present research has been carried out with the present of identifying and structurally analyzing the mutual influence of variables and effective drivers on the labor supply in the labor market of Iran in the horizon of 2061. so, in the beginning, through library research and survey of sources and documents in the background of the issue, a number of variables were identified, and so on key variables were determined through interviews with experts and the implementation of the Delphi method and the cross impact analysis questionnaire was designed and completed with the establishment expert panel (consisting of 12 experts in the context of the labor market). By means of MICMAC software, the degree of influence and effectiveness of each of the identified variables was evaluated and accordingly, It was concluded that variables such as age structure, social pressure, per capita income, marital status, immigration, death rate, gross national product, education cost and household cost have the greatest influence on the supply of human resources in Iran's labor market,and variables such as economic conditions (inflation and recession), payroll and government policies are key and propellant factors.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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