تحلیل تأثیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر انتشار کربن با استفاده از رویکرد تعادل عمومی‌قابل محاسبه چکیده

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد/دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد/دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان/ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

3 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

10.22080/mrl.2025.28232.2137

چکیده

رشد سریع اقتصادی و افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در کشورهای مختلف، نگرانی‌هایی را در خصوص پیامدهای محیط زیستی این روند ایجاد کرده است. در این مطالعه، دو نظریه متضاد در زمینه اثرات محیط زیستی جذب FDI بررسی می‌شود. نخست، نظریه «پناهگاه آلودگی» که بیان می‌کند کشورهای توسعه‌یافته صنایع آلاینده خود را به کشورهای در حال توسعه با قوانین محیط زیستی سهل‌گیرانه‌تر منتقل می‌کنند و در نتیجه موجب کاهش کیفیت محیط‌زیست در این کشورها می‌شوند. دوم، نظریه «هاله آلودگی» که بر این باور است که ورود سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی می‌تواند از طریق انتقال فناوری‌های پاک‌تر و افزایش بهره‌وری، به بهبود کیفیت محیط‌زیست در کشورهای در حال توسعه کمک کند و میزان انتشار آلاینده‌ها را کاهش دهد. به‌منظور ارزیابی این نظریات، از مدل تعادل عمومی‌قابل محاسبه و پایگاه داده 11GTAP که شامل مجموعه‌ای جامع از داده‌های اقتصادی جهانی همچون جداول ورودی-خروجی بین‌المللی، داده‌های تجاری، اقتصاد کلان و انرژی می‌باشد، بهره گرفته شده است. در این پژوهش، تأثیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی از سوی کشورهای عضو OECD بر میزان انتشار کربن در ایران، سایر اعضای سازمان همکاری شانگهای، کشورهای OECD و سایر نقاط جهان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. برای این منظور، دو سناریوی شوک ۲۰ درصدی و ۱۰۰ درصدی افزایش FDI طراحی شده و تأثیرات آن بر انتشار کربن مقایسه شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق با تأیید فرضیه «پناهگاه آلودگی»، نشان می‌دهد که در کشورهایی با قوانین محیط زیستی ضعیف‌تر، از جمله ایران، افزایش FDI به همان نسبت انتشار کربن را افزایش می‌دهد، زیرا صنایع آلاینده به دلیل هزینه‌ها و محدودیت‌های قانونی کمتر به این کشورها جذب می‌شوند. در مقابل، در کشورهای OECD که دارای استانداردهای محیط زیستی سخت‌گیرانه‌تری هستند، افزایش FDI با کاهش نسبی انتشار کربن همراه بوده است، که بیانگر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری در صنایع کمتر ‌آلاینده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the impact of foreign direct investment on carbon emission using the computable general equilibrium approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • seyed jalal tohidi 1
  • Hossein Akbarifard 1
  • Alireza Hassanzadeh 2
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 3
1 Economic dept, management and economic faculty, Shahid bahonar university of Kerman, Iran
2 Economic dept/management an aconomic faculty /Shahid Bahonar university of Kerman/Iran
3 Economic dept/management an aconomic faculty /Shahid Bahonar university of Kerman/Iran
چکیده [English]

Rapid economic growth and increased foreign direct investment in various countries have raised concerns about the environmental consequences of this trend. In this study, two opposing theories on the environmental effects of FDI are examined. First, the "pollution haven" theory, which states that developed countries transfer their polluting industries to developing countries with more lax environmental laws, thereby reducing the quality of the environment in these countries. Second, the "pollution halo" theory, which believes that the inflow of foreign direct investment can help improve the quality of the environment in developing countries and reduce the emission of pollutants through the transfer of cleaner technologies and increased productivity. In order to evaluate these theories, the computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP 11 database, which includes a comprehensive set of global economic data such as international input-output tables, trade, macroeconomic and energy data, are used. In this study, the impact of foreign direct investment from OECD member countries on carbon emissions in Iran, other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, OECD countries, and other parts of the world has been examined. For this purpose, two shock scenarios of 20% and 100% increase in FDI have been designed and their effects on carbon emissions have been compared. The research findings confirm "pollution haven" and show that in countries with weaker environmental laws, including Iran, an increase in FDI increases carbon emissions proportionally, because polluting industries are attracted to these countries due to less costs and lower legal restrictions. In contrast, in OECD countries that have stricter environmental standards, an increase in FDI has been associated with a relative decrease in carbon emissions, which indicates the attraction of investment in less polluting industries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pollution Halo
  • Pollution Haven
  • OECD and Shanghai countries
  • Computable General Equilibrium

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 46
شهریور 1404
صفحه 7-40

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 01 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 13 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 فروردین 1404

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