آثار شوک کسری بودجه و روش‌های تأمین مالی آن بر نابرابری درآمدی و ناامنی اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده بازار و کسب‌وکار، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

10.22080/mrl.2025.29972.2200

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثر شوک‌های کسری بودجه، بدهی بخش عمومی و روش‌های تأمین مالی دولت بر شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی (با تأکید بر مؤلفه‌های نابرابری درآمدی و ناامنی اقتصادی) با استفاده از الگوی خودبازگشت برداری ساختاری و داده‌های سالانه طی دوره سال‌های 1372 تا 1402 است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در بلندمدت، کسری بودجه اثر معنی‌داری بر مؤلفه‌های نابرابری درآمدی و ناامنی اقتصادی ندارد. در مقابل، بدهی بخش عمومی (بدهی دولت به نظام بانکی مشتمل بر استقراض از بانک مرکزی، بانک‌ها و مؤسسات اعتباری) موجب کاهش نابرابری درآمدی و افزایش ناامنی اقتصادی می‌شود. همچنین، افزایش نقدینگی و انتشار پول تأثیر قابل‌توجهی بر نابرابری درآمدی نداشته اما ناامنی اقتصادی را تشدید می‌کند. انتشار اوراق قرضه اثری خنثی بر نابرابری درآمدی داشته و در عین حال موجب کاهش ناامنی اقتصادی می‌شود. مالیات‌های مستقیم سبب افزایش نابرابری درآمدی می‌گردد، در حالیکه مالیات‌های غیرمستقیم اثر منفی اندکی بر نابرابری درآمدی دارند. علاوه بر این، مالیات‌های مستقیم و غیرمستقیم افزایش ناامنی اقتصادی را به همراه خواهند داشت. بر همین اساس می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که کسری بودجه به‌تنهایی تأثیری بر مؤلفه‌های شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی ندارد؛ بلکه روش‌های تأمین مالی آن است که می‌تواند مؤلفه‌های نابرابری درآمدی و ناامنی اقتصادی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effects of shock of budget deficit and its financing methods on income inequality and economic insecurity

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Fathi
  • Fatemeh Zandi
  • Bijan Safavi
  • Mahnaz Rabiei
Department of Economics, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of shock of budget deficit, public sector debt and government financing methods on the composite index of economic well-being (with an emphasis on the components of income inequality and economic insecurity) using a structural autoregressive (SVAR) model and annual data from 1372 to 1402 S.H.. The results indicate that in the long run, budget deficits do not have a significant effect on the components of income inequality and economic insecurity. In contrast, the public sector (government debt to the banking system, including borrowing from the central bank, banks, and credit institutions) reduces income inequality and increases economic insecurity. Also, increasing liquidity and money circulation do not have a significant effect on income inequality but exacerbate economic insecurity. The bond issuance has a neutral effect on income inequality and at the same time reduces economic insecurity. Direct taxes increase income inequality, while indirect taxes have a negative effect on income inequality. In addition, direct and indirect taxes will increase economic insecurity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that the budget deficit alone does not have an impact on the components of the composite index of economic well-being; rather Its financial methods can affect the components of income inequality and economic insecurity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Government Budget Deficit
  • Public Sector Debt
  • Government Financing Methods
  • Income Inequality
  • Economic Insecurity
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