Estimation Import Smuggling and Its Determinants in Iran on Fuzzy Method

Document Type : Scientific paper

Abstract

In this paper the Smuggling imports & its determinants are calculated in Iran during the period from 1350-1388 For this purpose, with using a fuzzy method, 10 scenarios were designed and implemented in MATLAB programming environment. The results indicated that the smuggling imports during the period under consideration in spite of the large fluctuations, has been rising in total. Also, based on the findings for 1350-1366 the average tariff rate in comparison with other  factors under consideration have a greatest impact on smuggling imports. Furthermore, this study showed that in the first & second development plan, inflation is more important than other factors in the smuggling imports. Based on the results, in the third & fourth development plan, the most important factor is tax burden.

Keywords

References

 
1.Ahmadi, Akbar., (1381), ‘Estimates of the black economy in Iran  by the fuzzy logic approach’ ,Faslnameh pazhoheshay eghtesadi Iran, 10, 125-146.
2.Akhbari, Mohammad., Akhbari, Mahdieh., and Agababaie, Reza., (1389), ‘The application for fuzzy logic approach in illegal (Smuggle) trade modeling of Iran’, Faslnameh eghtesad meghdari(Barresi eghtesadi sabegh), 7(4), 117-149.
3.Amin Khaki, Alireza., (1390), ‘The estimated tax evasion and determination factors in the economy’, Payannameh doctora, Daneshgah Mazandaran, Daneshkadeh olom-e eghtesadi va edari, Iran.
4.Ashrafzadeh, Hamidreza., Mehregan, Nader., (1378), ‘Estimate the size of hide economic activities in Iran by the demand for money and coin in circulation’, Majmoe maghalate sevomin hamayesh meli Barresi ghachagh kala , rah pishgiri az an, Daneshgah Tarbiat Modares, 25-44.
5. Bahmani- Oskooee, M., & Goswami, G.G. (2003). Smuggling as Another Cause of Failur of the PPP. Journal of Economic Development, 28(2), 23-38.
6. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Goswami, G.G. (2003). Smuggling and the Black Market Premium. Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 1(1),95-111.
7. Berger, H., & Nitsch, V. (2008). Gotcha!  A Profile of Smuggling in Internatial  Trade. CESIFO Working paper NO.2475.
8. Bhagwati ,J., & Hansen, B. (1973). A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling. The Quarterly Institute of  Economics,  87, 172 -187.
9. Bienvenido, P., &  Aleno, J. (1984). Import Smuggling  in The Philippines: An Economic Analysis. Journal of Philippine Development, 20, 157-190.
10.Bigdeli, Ali., Zaranezhad, Mansor., Asodar, Mohammad amin., (1385), ‘Compare the regional development of agricultural mechanization in hamedan by the fuzzy logic approach’, Berresihay eghtesadi (Eghtesad meghdari), 3(4), 23-51.
11. Buehn,A., & Farzanegan, M. R. (2012). Smuggling around the world: Evidence from a structure Equation model. Applied Economics, 44(23),3047-64.
12. Connolly, M., & Deuereux, J., & Cortes, M. (1995). The Transhipment  Problem: Smuggling and Welfare in Paraguay. World Development, 23(6), 975-985.
13. Dornbush,R.(1986).Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions. The World Bank Economic Review, 1(1), 3-33.
14. Farzanegan, M. (2009). Illegal Trade in Iranian Economy: Evidence from a Structure Model.European Journal of Political Economy, 25,489-507.
15.Gholizadeh, Seyed Ebrahim., Alipoor, Abbas., Zoghi barani, Kazem., (1390), ‘Causes and consequences of smuggling in Iran after the Islamic rvolution’, Faslnameh danesh Entezami, 4, 109-142.
16. Giles, D, E. A. & Draeseke, R. (2002). A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modeling the Underground Economy. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 59(3), 115-123.
17. Jensen, A. R., & Thursby, J., & Thursby, M. (1988). Smuggling,  Camouflaging, and Market Structure, NBER Working Paper No. 2630.
18.Koreh pazan Dezfoli, Amin., (1387), ‘The set theory principles of fuzzy and its application in modeling water engineering issues’,Entesharat gahad daneshgahi vahed sanati Amir Kabir, chap dovom.
19. Lindstrom,T.(1998).A Fuzzy of Design The Willingness to Invest in Sweden. Journal of Economics Behavior & Organization,36, 1-17.
20.Pazhoyan, Jamshid., Madah, Majid., (1385), ‘Economic analysis smuggling in Iran’, Pazhoheshnameh eghtesadi, 20, 43-70.
21. Pitt, M. M. (1981). Smuggling &  Price Disparity. Journal of   International  Economics, 11, 447-458.
22.Rezvani, (1389), ‘Imports effect and factors affecting it in Iran’, Payannameh karshenasi arshad,Daneshgah Mazandaran, Daneshkadeh olom-e eghtesadi va edari, Iran.
23. Sheikh,M.A. (1973).Under invoicing of Imports in Pakistan. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 36, 287–296.
24.Sadeghi sefat, Hamed., (1385), ‘The estimated volume of imports smuggling in Iran by the fuzzy logic approach’, Payannameh karshenasi arshad, Daneshgah Emam Sadegh, Daneshkade ma-aref eslami va eghtesad, Iran.
25.Yavari, Kazem., (1378), ‘The estimated smuggling and view expensive import by the statistical differences in Iran’, Majmoe maghalate sevomin hamayesh meli Barresi ghachagh kala , rah pishgiri az an, Daneshgah Tarbiat Modares.
26. Yu, T, H. & Wang, D, H. & Chen, S, J. (2006).A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modeling the Underground Economy in Taiwan. Physica A, 362, 471-479.
27. Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and Control, 8(3), 338-353.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 29 October 2011
  • Revise Date: 02 August 2011
  • Accept Date: 01 December 2013

Share

How to cite

Statistics