The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Exchange Rate by the System Dynamics Approach

Document Type : Scientific paper

Authors

1 PhD student, Department of Financial management, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran

2 Corresponding Author, Associate professor, Department of Accounting and management, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran

3 Assistant professor, Department of Financial engineering, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran

4 Associate professor, Department of management,, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to analyze the sensitivity of the exchange rate trend and prices relative to the underlying factors affecting it. In order to analysis, the sensitivity of the exchange rate, First, the process of exchange rate changes using the dynamics of the system For the period of 2004 to 2022 is predicted And then, the impact of changes in factors such as productivity, the tariff rate on imports The share of government development spending, oil prices, sanctions and interest rates on the exchange rate has been evaluated. first It was separately evaluated the effect of the variation of the variables on the exchange rate trend. Then, variables variations effect simultaneously was examined on the exchange rate trend. The results show that the changes in each of the above factors, with the assumption that other factors are stable, have no significant effect on the exchange rate. But simultaneous variations of several variables significantly affect the exchange rate, and this gives rise to Being a system. In other words, the results of the research indicate that the changes, if only important, can not affect the exchange rate, and these are a set of factors that determine the course of the exchange rate.

Keywords

References

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Macroeconomics Research Letter
Volume 15, Issue 29
August 2020
Pages 349-384

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History

  • Receive Date: 28 December 2018
  • Revise Date: 23 June 2020
  • Accept Date: 02 December 2020

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