Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate Gap on Economic Welfare in Iran

Document Type : Scientific paper

Authors

1 M.A. in Economics, University of Mazandaran,

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Mazandaran

3 Associate Professor in Economics, University of Mazandaran,

Abstract

Well-being is considered as the most important index of happiness and comfort, which is affected by many factors. In this study, the focus is on the exchange rate gap (Dollar to Rial) as a factor affecting economic well-being. In order to explain the effect of exchange rate gap on economic well-being, first economic well-being was calculated using the composite Index of Economic Well Being (IEWB) during the years 1978-2021 and then the research model was estimated with the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The calculation of the well-being index indicates that economic well-being had a declining trend after the revolution until the end of the war, and then increased with a gentle slope after the war. The increasing trend continued until 2017 and it decreased again due to reasons such as the intensification of sanctions and the resulting decrease in oil revenues. The findings in the estimation of the model show that the exchange rate gap is associated with a negative (reverse) effect on economic well-being and also has an asymmetric effect. The results show that the exchange rate gap, in addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, also causes rent and corruption. In addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, the exchange rate gap also causes rent and corruption. With more research on the exchange rate gap, policy makers should adopt policies that will reduce the gap or related corruption.
.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  • Abounoori, E. & Zobeiri, H. (2010). Exchange Rate Gap Effecton EconomicGrowth in Iran. International Review of Business Research Papers, 6(6), 66-77.

    Alexander, S. S. (1952). Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 2(2), 263-278.

    Alizadeh, M., Nemati, G., Fotros, M. H., Khodaverdi Samani, M., & Kabiri, D. (2022). Identifying Factors Affecting Iran's Social Welfare under Uncertainty: A Bayesian Average Approach. Stable Economy Journal, 3(1), 61-97. (In Persian)

    Ambaw, D., Pundit, M., Ramayandi, A., & Sim, N. (2022). Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, 651, Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4052165#

    Arman Mehr, M. R., &  Farahmandmanesh, A. (2017). Studying the Effect of Price Changes on the Welfare of Urban Households Disaggregated By Income Deciles and Commodity Groups. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modelling, 11(39), 49-74. (In Persian)

    Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Goswami, G. G., & Mebratu, S. (2006). Black market premium and income distribution. Journal of Developing Areas, 39(2), 17-28.

    Bakhtiari, S., Ranjbar, H., & Ghorbani, S. (2013). Composite Index of Economic Well Being and its Measurement for Selected Developing Countries. Economic Growth and Development Research, 3(9), 41-58. (In Persian)

    Bergin, P. R., Shin, H. C., & Tchakarov, I. (2007). Does exchange rate variability matter for welfare? A quantitative investigation of stabilization policies. European Economic Review, 51(4), 1041-1058.

    Canales-Kriljenko, J. I., Guimaraes, R., & Karacadag, C. (2003). Official Interventionin Foreign Exchange Market: Element of Best Practice. IMF Working Paper, 03/152, Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03152.pdf

    Del Rosal, I. (2011). The empirical measurement of rent‐seeking costs. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(2), 298-325.

    Devereux, M. B., & Engel, C. (2003). Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility. The Review of Economic Studies, 70(4), 765-783.

    Edwards, S. (1989). Exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The World Bank Research Observer, 4(1), 3-21.

    Gala, P., & Lucinda, C. R. (2006). Exchange rate misalignment and growth: old and new econometric evidence. Revista Economia, 7(4), 165-187.

    Helliwell, J. F., & Putnam, R. D. (2004). The social context of well–being. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 359(1449), 1435-1446.

    Hotti, K., & Pinto, B. (1989). Exchange Rate Rules, Black Market Premia and Fiscal Deficits: The Bolivian Hyperinflation. The Review of Economic Studies, 56(3), 435-447.

    Iqbali, A., Halafi, H., & Gasgari, R. (2004). Real Exchange Rate Deviation and Economic Growth in Iran's Economy. Economics Research, 4(14), 167-188. (In Persian)

    Jalaei, S. A. M., & Khosravi, A. (2006). Deviation of Exchange Rate from its Equilibrium Trend and its Impact on Economical Growth in Iran. Macroeconomic Research Letter, 20(6), 85-108. (In Persian)

    Kafaie, S. M. A., & Pourfathy, N. (2020). Investigation of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatality on Economic Welfare and Determination of Appropriate Monetary Policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economic Strategy, 8(31), 5-42. (In Persian)

    Kahneman, D., & Krueger, A. B. (2006). Developments in the measurement of subjective well-being. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(1), 3-24.

    Liu, O., & Adedeji, O. S (2000). Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Macroeconomic Analysis. IMF Working Paper, 00/127, Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp00127.pdf

    Lizondo, J. S. (1987). Unification of Dual Exchange Markets. Journal of International Economics, 22, 57 -77.

    Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H., Sherafatmand, H., & Baghestany, A. A. (2011). Study on the Impacts of Exchange Rate Shocks and Gap of GDP on Inflation in Iran. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 17(33), 294-312. (In Persian)

    Michalos, A. C. (2017). Connecting the Quality of Llife Theory to Health, Well-being and Education. Berlin: Springer.

    Mojtahed, A., & Ahmadyan, A. (2007). Welfare Effect of Exchange Rate Policy in Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 9(30), 1-21. (In Persian)

    Panich, M. (2007). Does Europe need liberal reforms? Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31(1), 145–169.

    Parsa, O. A., Hosseinzadeh, J., Yazdankhah, M., Allahrezaei, A., & Farkhfal, M. (2018). Why Is the Public Perception of Rising Living Costs and Prices Different from the Official Inflation Rate? Statistics, 6(1), 8-27. (In Persian)

    Pourfathy, N., & Kafaie, S. M. (2020). Investigation of the Effect of Exchange Rate Determination on Economic Welfare. Financial Economics, 14(53), 97-132. (In Persian)

    Rabbani, R., Arunchalm, D., Abbaszadeh, M., & Ghasemi, V. (2008). The Effect of Economic and Social Welfare on the Degree of the Participation of Citizens in Urban Affairs (Case: City of Isfahan). Journal of Social Sciences Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, 4(9), 73-99. (In Persian)

    Razin, O. & Collins, S. M. (1997). Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 6174, Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w6174

    • Sadeghi, H., Assari, A., & Masaeli, A. (2011). Introducing a New Approach to Estimate Welfare Index in Iran: Using Fuzzy Logic Approach. The Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 10(3), 143-166. (In Persian)

    Sadigh Mohammadi, M., Sarlak, A., Najafizadeh, S. A., & Hassanzadeh, M. (2021). The Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Households Welfare in Iran: A CGE Approach. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(42), 81-108. (In Persian)

    Sahminan, S. (2002); Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: Empirical Evidences from Major Southeast Asian Countries. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Working Paper, 89844, Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/89844/1/MPRA_paper_89844.pdf

    Schnabl, G. (2008). Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery. Economic Systems, 32(1), 70-91.

    Shabsigh, G., & Domaç, I. (1999). Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. IMF Working Paper, 99/40, Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp9940.pdf

    Shahabadi, A., & Arghand, H. (2019). The Effects of Economic Complexity on Social Welfare in Selected Developing Countries. Iraniian Journal of Trade Studies, 23(89), 89-122. (In Persian)

    Shi, J. (2000).The Black Market Premiumand the Rate of Inflationina Dual Exchange Rate Regime. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 5(1), 77-88.

    Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, 9, 281-314.

    Solati, H. (2021). Investigating the Role of Special Economic Zones in Employment Rate and Welfare Level. Quarterly Journal of Approach to Business Management, 2(2), 79-90. (In Persian)

    Sutherland, A. (2002). International Monetary Policy Coordination and Financial Market Integration. International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), 751, Retrieved from https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/751/ifdp751.pdf

    Sylwester, K. (2003). Changes in income inequality and the black market premium. Applied Economics, 35(4), 403-413.

    Valadkhani, A. (2003). An Empirical Analysis of the Black Market Exchange Ratein Iran. Asian-African Journal of Economicsand Econometrics, 4(2), 141-52.

    Van Praag, B. M. S. (1989). The Relativity  of  the  Welfare  Concept. WIDER Working Papers, 69, Retrieved  from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5078430_The_Relativity_of_the_Welfare_Concept/link/54cdf5160cf29ca810f920ae/download

    Zaroki, S., Yadollahi Otaghsara, M., & Yousefi Barfurushi, A. (2022). An Analysis of the Determinants of Informal Employment in Urban and Rural Regions in Iran: Pseudo-Panel Data Approach. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 26(89), 95-129. (In Persian)

    Zaroki, S., Yousefi Barfurushi, A., & Mehri Karnami, Y. (2020). The Effect of Black Market Premium and Asymmetric Inflation and Unemployment on Income Inequality in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economocs, 7(1), 117-148. (In Persian)

    Zhang, K. H. (2001). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?. Economics of Transition, 9(3), 679-693.

    Zobeiri, H. (2016). Investigation the Effect of Exchange rate Gap of Official and Parallel Market on Inflation in Iran (Structural Time Series Approach). Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 7(26), 167-192. (In Persian)

    Zobeiri, H., & Elami, Z. (2008). Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Gap on Iran's Inflation. Semnan University Faculty of Humanities Journal, 8(29), 99-118. (In Persian)

    Zobeiri, H., & Nademi, Y. (2015). Exchange Rate Gap Effect on Unemployment Rate in Iran Using Markov-Switching Model. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 20(1), 109-136. (In Persian)

     

     

Macroeconomics Research Letter
Volume 18, Issue 37
December 2023
Pages 33-61

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 21 September 2023
  • Revise Date: 10 October 2023
  • Accept Date: 15 October 2023

Share

How to cite

Statistics