محاسبه شاخص واردات قاچاق و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران به روش فازی

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشگاه مازندران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد

چکیده

  در مقاله ­ی حاضر به محاسبه شاخص واردات قاچاق و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران(1350-1388) پرداخته می­شود. برای این منظور با استفاده از روش فازی، 10 سناریو طراحی و در محیط برنامه نویسی MATLAB اجرا شدند. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد که روند واردات قاچاق در سال­های مورد بررسی به رغم نوسانات عمده، در مجموع افزایشی بوده است. هم­چنین، براساس یافته­های این پژوهش در سال­های 1350-1366 شاخص نرخ متوسط تعرفه در مقایسه با سایر عوامل مورد بررسی بیشترین تأثیر را بر روند واردات قاچاق گذاشته است. هم­چنین، این پژوهش نشان داد که در برنامه اول و دوم توسعه نرخ تورم نسبت به سایر عوامل از اهمیت بیشتری در واردات قاچاق برخوردار است. براساس یافته­های این پژوهش در برنامه­ی سوم و چهارم توسعه بار مالیاتی از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation Import Smuggling and Its Determinants in Iran on Fuzzy Method

چکیده [English]

In this paper the Smuggling imports & its determinants are calculated in Iran during the period from 1350-1388 For this purpose, with using a fuzzy method, 10 scenarios were designed and implemented in MATLAB programming environment. The results indicated that the smuggling imports during the period under consideration in spite of the large fluctuations, has been rising in total. Also, based on the findings for 1350-1366 the average tariff rate in comparison with other  factors under consideration have a greatest impact on smuggling imports. Furthermore, this study showed that in the first & second development plan, inflation is more important than other factors in the smuggling imports. Based on the results, in the third & fourth development plan, the most important factor is tax burden.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Smuggling Import
  • Iranian Economy
  • fuzzy logic
  • Monetory Method

 

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