تاثیر مخارج نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی کشور های خاورمیانه:با استفاده از رهیافت گشتاوررهای تعمیم یافته(GMM)

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه افتصاد، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، همدان، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه لرستان

چکیده

مقاله حاضر به بررسی اثر مخارج نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی 11 کشور خاورمیانه می‌پردازد. قرارگرفتن خاورمیانه در منطقه‌ای حساس و استراتژیک از یک‌سو و روند افزایشی مخارج نظامی کشورهای این منطقه از سویی دیگر، لزوم بررسی اثر مخارج نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای این منطقه را مهم جلوه می‌دهد. مخارج نظامی می‌تواند هم دارای اثر مثبت و هم اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی باشد. در این راستا، از یک مدل سولوی تعمیم‌یافته (ارائه‌شده توسط نایت، لوئیزا و ویلانوا (1996)) طی دوره‌ی زمانی 2012-1988 استفاده شده است. یافته‌های این تحقیق با استفاده از تکنیک پانل پویا و روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM) نشان‌ دهنده اثر منفی هزینه‌های نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای خاورمیانه است. بنابراین، هرچه تهدیدهای نظامی در خاورمیانه کاهش یابد و منطقه از ثبات سیاسی بیشتری برخوردار باشد، هزینه‌های توسعه اقتصادی جایگزین هزینه‌های نظامی خواهد شد و رشد اقتصادی بیش تری را برای کشورهای منطقه در بر خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Military expenditures on Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad Molaei 1
  • abolghasem golkhandan 2
2 lorestan university
چکیده [English]

The present paper examines the effect of military expenditures on economic growth in 11 Middle Eastern countries. Putting the Middle East in a sensitive and strategic area on the one hand and increasing the military expenditure of the countries of this region on the other hand, the need to examine the effect of military expenditures on the economic growth of the countries of the region is important. Military spending can have both a positive and negative effect on economic growth. In this regard, a generalized Solow model (provided by Knight, Loayza and Villanueva (1996) has been used during the period of 1988-2018. The findings of this study, using Dynamic Panel Technique and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), indicate the negative effect of military expenditures on the economic growth of the Middle East countries. Therefore, as military threats in the Middle East are reduced and the region has more political stability, economic development costs will replace military spending and will generate more economic growth for the countries of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Defense Expenses
  • Economic Growth
  • Augmented Solow Model
  • Middle East Countries
  • Generalized Method of Moments

 Anderson, T.W. & Hsiao, C. (1981). “Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 589-606.

Ando, S. (2009). “The Impact of Defense Expenditure on Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Based on the Feder Model”. The International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 4(8), 141-154.

Anwar, M.A., Rafique, Z. & Joiya, S.A. (2012) “Defense Spending-Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of Pakistan”. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 50 (2), 163-182.

Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). “Some Test of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations”. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.

Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models”. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.

Atesoglu, H.S. (2002). “Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States Evidence from Co-integration Analysis”. Defense and Peace Economics, 13(1), 55-60.

Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Benoit, E. (1973). “Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. Boston, MA: Health and CO., Lexington Books.

Beyzaei, E. (2001). “The Relationship between Military Spending and Economic Variables in Iran (1972-1997)”. Journal of Humanities of Al-Zahra University, No 37, 38, 47-75.

Biswar, B. & Ram, R. (1986). “Military Spending and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.

Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.

Chang, H.C., Huang, B. & Yong, C. W. (2011). “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth across Different Groups: A Dynamic Panel Granger-Causality Approach”. Economic Modelling, 28, 2416-2423.

Dorry, H. (1998), "The Status of Military Spending in Economic Development”. Institute of Strategic Studies.

Dunne, P. (2010). “Military Spending and Economic Growth in Sub-Sahran Africa”. Defense and Peace Economics.

Dunne, P., & Nikolaidou, E. (2012). “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the EU15”. Defense and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.

Dunne, P., Smith, R. & Willenbockel, D. (2005). “Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review”. Defense and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449-461.

Farzanegan, M.R. (2011). “Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran”. MPRA Paper, No. 35498.

Feder, G. (1983). “On Export and Economic Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59-73.

Halicioglu, F. (2004). “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: An Empirical Application of New Macroeconomic Theory”. Review of Middle East Economics Finance, 2(3), 193-201.

Hartly, K. (2005). “Defense Spending and its Impact on the National Economy”. Center of Defense Economics, University of York.

Hasani, M.H. & Aziznezhad, S. (2007). “Defense Spending and its Impact on Economic Growth (Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Model for Iran)”. Journal of Iranian Economic Research, No. 30, 193-212.

Hasani Sadrabadi, M.H. & Kasshmari, A. (2008). “The Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Growth and its Indirect Effect on Private Consumption in Iran (Review Model of Supply-Side Economics)”. Journal of Economic Research, No. 2, 25-40.

Hou, N. & Chen, B. (2013). “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates”. Defense and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.

Huang, C. & Mintz, A. (1991). “Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Externality Effect”. Defense Economics, 3, 35-40.

Knight, M., Loayza, N. & Villanueva, D. (1996). “The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth”. IMF Staff Papers, 43, 1-44.

Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D. & Weil, D.N. (1992). “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407–437.

Narayan, P.K. & Smyth, R. (2009). “A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six-  Middle Eastern Countries”. Journal of Peace Research, 235-250.

Ozun, A. & Erbaykal, E. (2011). “Further Evidence on Defense Spending and Economic Growth NATO Countries”. Working Paper, No. 1119.

Poorsadegh, N., Kashmari, A. & Eftekharshahi, J. (2007). “Impacts of Military Expenses on the Economic Development of Iran: Given the Impacts of the imposed Iran-Iraq War and September 11 Event”. Journal of Military Management, No. 28, 78-100.

Sandler, T. & Hertley, K. (1995). “The Economics of Defense”. Cambridge surveys of Economic Literature, Cambridge University Press.

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). “Yearbooks Armaments and Disarmaments and International Security”. SIPRI-Oxford University Press, New York. Various issues.

Smith, R. (1980). “Military Expenditure and Investment in OECD Countries: 1954-1973”. Journal of Comparative Economics, 4, 19-32.

Smith, R. (1995). “Demand for Military Expenditure”. By Hartley and Sandler, Amsterdam, 1, 69-88.

Tayebi, S., Hajikarami, M. & Sariri. H. (2011). “The Effect of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development: Evidence from Iran and its Trade Partners (1996-2009)”. Journal of Economic Research (Rahe Andisheh), No. 4, 39- 60.

Wijeweera, A. and Webb, M.J. (2011). “Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis”. Defense and Peace Economics, 22(5); 545-554.

Yildirim, J., Ocal, N. & Keskin, H. (2011). “Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Spatial Spillovers: A Global Perspective”. International Conference on Applied Economics, 811-821.