شواهدی تجربی از رابطه مصرف انرژی و فقر در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد ،گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران،بابلسر، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر،ایران

چکیده

با توجه به ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی و اجتماعی پدیده فقر و اهمیت مسئله کاهش فقر در کشورها و نظر به تاثیرپذیری آن از مصرف انرژی، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل تاثیر میزان مصرف انرژی در ایران بر فقر  در کل کشور می پردازد. بدین منظور با به کارگیری روش اقتصادسنجی معادلات هم زمان و تخمین زن های حداقل مربعات دو مرحله­ای(2SLS )  و حداقل مربعات سه مرحله­ای( 3SLS)  رابطه بین مصرف انرژی و فقر در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1368 تا 1394 مورد آزمون کمی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان می دهد که افزایش مصرف انرژی در کشور طی دوره مورد مطالعه با تاثیر مستقیم بر فقر منجر به کاهش آن شده و از سوی دیگر با تاثیرگذاری مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی و بهبود توزیع درآمد، به طور غیر مستقیم نیز آن در کاهش فقر موثر است. همچنین بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، شواهد کافی مبنی بر تاثیرگذاری مثبت اجرای طرح هدفمندی یارانه ها بر کاهش فقر و نابرابری در سال های اجرایی شدن آن در اقتصاد ایران وجود ندارد و لذا انتظار می رود سیاستگذاران اقتصادی کشور به هنگام تدوین سیاست های تاثیرگذار بر بخش انرژی مانند اجرای مراحل تکمیلی طرح هدفمندی یارانه ها، پیامدهای مختلف ناشی از آن را مدنظر قرار دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Some Experimental Evidences of the Relationship between Poverty and Energy Consumption in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Aghaei 1
  • Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh 2
2 -
چکیده [English]

Considering the different economic and social dimensions of the poverty phenomenon and the importance of the poverty reduction in the countries and according to the role of energy in poverty reduction, this study has been conducted to analyze the impact of energy consumption on poverty reduction in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, Simultaneous equation method with using two-stage least square(2SLS) and three-stage least square(3SLS) estimators, were used to estimate the relationship between energy consumtion and poverty in Iran during the period of 1368 to 1394.
Results indicate that energy conosumtion can be effective on poverty directly and indirectly. The increasing in energy consumption leads to poverty reduction directly because of the various benefits of energy consumption and, on the other hand, with the positive and significant effect of energy consumption on economic growth and improving income distribution leads to poverty reduction indirectly. Also, results show that there is not enough evidence that comfirm positive effect of subsidies targeting plan implementation on poverty and inequality reduction in the Iranian economy. Therefore, Iranian policy makers should consider theire various policy consequences when they make a policy related to energy sector such as the implementation of the complementary steps of the subsidies targeting plan.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy consumption
  • Poverty
  • Simultaneous Equation
  • 3SLS and 2SLS Estimators
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