عوامل مؤثر بر متنوع‌سازی صادرات صنعتی در ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه رشد صادرات غیرنفتی به عنوان روشی مؤثر جهت دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی با توجه به بی­ثباتی درآمدهای نفتی، مطرح است. در این راستا ضرورت بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن به منظور اتخاذ سیاست­ های تجاری مناسب برجسته می­ گردد. با توجه به تأکید برنامه­ های توسعه کشور بر رشد صادرات غیرنفتی، متنوع­سازی صادرات یکی از سیاست­ های مناسب در این زمینه است. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر متنوع­ سازی صادرات صنعتی در ایران است. برای این منظور جهت تعیین میزان تنوع صادرات از شاخص هرفیندال-هریشمن و برای تخمین مدل از روش فیلتر کالمن طی دوره 1978 تا 2012 استفاده شده است. نتایج مقاله حاکی از ارتباط مثبت و معنادار بین سرمایه­ گذاری مستقیم خارجی، سرمایه­ گذاری داخلی، شاخص رقابت­ پذیری، توسعه بخش مالی، قدرت نهادی و نرخ ارز با تنوع صادرات است. این یافته­ ها پیامدهای مهمی از نظر سیاستی جهت تدوین برنامه­ های آتی به منظور دستیابی به توسعه پایدار دارد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می­ گردد به منظور افزایش درجه تنوع ­سازی صادرات رشد اعتبارات به بخش خصوصی و افزایش توان رقابتی بین­ المللی برای جذب سرمایه­ گذاران خارجی مد نظر قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting Diversification of Industrial Exports in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Amiri 1
  • Mahnaz Amini Daran 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 MA student, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Non-oil export growth is considered as an effective way to achieve economic growth due to the instability of oil revenues in countries with oil reserves. In this regard, the necessity of studying the factors influencing export diversification is also highlighted as the adoption of business policies. Considering the emphasis of the country's development plans on the growth of non-oil exports, diversification of exports is one of the suitable policies in this regard. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of the specific and definite factors of Iran in determining the process of export diversification. To this end, we used the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for nine commodity groups to determine the export variability, using the Kalman filter method and time series data for the period 1978-2012. The above study suggests a positive and significant relationship between foreign direct investment, domestic investment, competitiveness index, financial sector development and institutional strength, and the growth of the exchange rate with the diversification of exports in this country. These findings have important policy implications for developing future plans. Therefore, it is recommended that Iran consider private sector credit in future development plans and improve its international competitive ability to attract foreign and domestic investors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export diversification
  • Economic development
  • Industrial exports
  • Grants to the private sector

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