اثر گذار جمعیتی بر درآمد سرانه کشورهای غنی از منابع طبیعی: مطالعه موردی اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

گذار جمعیتی به عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم و موثر بر رشد اقتصادی شناخته می‌شود. اما این اثر از رانت منابع طبیعی و نحوه توزیع آن در کشورهای غنی از منابع طبیعی تاثیر می‌پذیرد. به عبارت دیگر، گذار جمعیتی بسته به میزان وابستگی اقتصاد به منابع طبیعی، می‌ تواند اثر کاملا متفاوتی بر درآمد سرانه داشته باشد. پژوهش حاضر نقش درآمدهای نفتی را در اثر گذارِ جمعیتی بر درآمد سرانه ایران طی دوره 1357-1396مورد بررسی قرار می‌ دهد . یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد رانت حاصل از درآمدهای نفتی موجب کاهش ظرفیت اقتصاد برای جذب جمعیت افزایش یافته در سنین کار و در نتیجه کاهش درآمد سرانه می‌شود. با توجه به افزایش قابل توجه جمعیت جوان طی دهه اخیر و همچنین کاهش درآمدهای نفتی ایران در آستانه 1400 برنامه‌ ریزی برای بهره‌ برداری از گذار جمعیتی در راستای افزایش تولید و رونق اقتصادی بیشتر از هر زمان دیگری ضروری به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Demographic Transition on GDP per Capita in Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Hoda Zobeiri
Assistant professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
چکیده [English]

Demographic transition is known as one of the main factors affecting economic growth. But this effect may depend on natural resource rent s in resource-rich countries. In other word s, resource rent s may shape the impact of the demographic transition on national income. This paper examines d the interaction effect of oil revenue on demographic transition and GDP per capita of Iran during 1978 - 2017. The results suggest that the capacity of the economy to productively absorb the entry of young people into the labor market is limited by higher oil revenue. Given the significant increase in the share of the working-age population in the last decade and also decreasing of Iran's oil revenue s in beginning of 1400 Implementing effective planning to take advantage of demographic transition into an economic
prosperity seem s more important than ever.



کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Demographic Transition
  • Natural Resource
  • oil
  • GDP per capita
  • Iran
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