آثار نامتقارن تنوع صادرات صنعتی بر بی‌ثباتی درآمد ارزی بخش صنعت ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

تنوع کالاهای صادراتی و عدم تمرکز بر روی صادرات چند محصول محدود موجب کاهش اثرپذیری درآمد ارزی کشور در نوسانات سیاسی و اقتصادی جهانی ‌شده و به همین دلیل این موضوع اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد. هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی رابطه تنوع‌بخشی کالاهای صادراتی صنعتی بر بی‌ثباتی درآمد ارزی بخش صنعت ایران می‌باشد. بدین منظور از داده‌های فصلی 1-1381 تا 2-1397 و با توجه به اثر موشک-پر از روش NARDL جهت بررسی اثرات نامتقارن تنوع و تمرکز صادرات صنعتی استفاده شده و جهت بررسی تنوع صادراتی از شاخص هرفندال‌هریشمن و شاخص تیل استفاده شده‌است. نتایج حاکی از تایید اثرات نامتقارن تمرکز و تنوع بر ثبات درآمدارزی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت می باشد، بدین صورت که در هر دو مدل تنوع دارای تاثیر کمتری نسبت به تمرکز کالاهای صادراتی صنعتی لذا متنوع‌سازی کالاهای صنعتی صادراتی به آرامی موجب ثبات درآمد ارزی شده‌اند در حالیکه تمرکز کالاهای صنعتی صادراتی به شدت موجب بی‌ثباتی درآمد ارزی گردیده‌اند. همچنین تاثیر درآمد جهانی بر بی‌ثباتی درآمد ارزی بخش صنعت، منفی بدست آمده، لذا موجب ثبات درآمد ارزی می‌گردد، در حالیکه اثر بی‌ثباتی نرخ حقیقی ارز و نرخ تورم مثبت بوده و بی‌ثباتی را تشدید کرده‌است. همچنین تاثیر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش صنعتی منفی اما معنادار نبوده‌است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Asymmetric Effects of Industrial Exports Diversification on the Instability of Iran Industrial Foreign Exchange Earnings

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hooman Nasiri 1
  • Masood Nonezhad 2
1 Ph.D. student, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The diversification of export commodities and the decentralization on the export of several limited products have reduced the country's foreign exchange earnings effect in global political and economical fluctuations, and this is why this issue is of particular importance. The main of this study is to examine the relationship between the diversification of industrial export goods and the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran`s industry sector. For this purpose, seasonal data from 2002-2 to 2018-3 and using the NARDL method to determine the Rocket-Feather effect of diversification and concentration in industrial export have been used, and for the purpose of examining export diversification, the Hierarchical Index and Till Index have been used. The results confirm the asymmetric effects of diversification and concentration on instability of exchange earnings industry in the short and long run, so that in both models, diversity has less impact on the focus of industrial exports, so the diversification of export-oriented industrial goods has slowly stabilized foreign exchange earnings. While the concentration of export industrial goods has been strongly caused by the instability of exchange earnings. Also, the impact of global income on the instability of the industrial exchange earnings has been negatively achieved, thereby contributing to the stability of exchange earnings, while the instability of the real exchange rate, inflation rate is positive and instability have intensified. Also, the impact of investment in the industrial sector was negative but insignificant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export diversification
  • Foreign exchange earnings
  • Industrial goods exports
  • NARDL method
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