بررسی تاثیر ادوار تجاری واقعی بر تولید، اشتغال و سرمایه گذاری بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

در ادبیات ادوار تجاری بر نقش متغیرهایی همچون درآمدهای نفت و گاز، نوسانات صادرات نفت و گاز، کسری بودجه دولت و نقدینگی بر ادوار تجاری تأکیدشده است و مطالعات معدودی در زمینه تأثیر ادوار تجاری بر بخش کشاورزی انجام شده است. ازاین‌رو در این پژوهش به استخراج اجزای روند بلندمدت ادوار تجاری و تکانه­های نامنظم از تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی طی دوره 1361-1391 با استفاده از فیلتر هودریک - پرسکات پرداخته شده و سپس خواص ادواری متغیرهای کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر ادوار تجاری محاسبه و تحلیل شده است. به‌منظور بررسی تأثیر ادوار تجاری بر بخش کشاورزی، از سیستم معادلات همزمان استفاده گردیده است. نتایج برآورد مدل با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات سه مرحله­ای بیانگر آن است که ادوار تجاری بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و معنی­دار و بر اشتغال و سرمایه­گذاری در بخش کشاورزی اثر منفی و معنی­دار دارد. لذا توصیه می­شود در سال­های رونق اقتصادی، دولت به سرمایه­گذاری در بخش کشاورزی توجه بیشتری داشته باشد تا در زمان کاهش قیمت نفت و گاز که عامل اصلی ایجاد رکود اقتصادی در کشور است، این بخش اقتصادی یاری کننده­ی بهتری برای اقتصاد کشور باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Studying the Effect of Business Cycle on Production, Employment, and Investment in Agricultural Sector of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Naderipoor 1
  • Sedigheh Nabieyan 2
  • Adolmajid Jalaee 3
1 Ms.c. student, Shahid Bahonar University,Kerman, Iran
2 َAssistant Professor, Ag. Econ. Dept. faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Professor at Econ. Dept.Faculty of Agr. & Eco., Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Business cycle literature is focused on the role of variables such as oil and gas incomes, export fluctuations of oil and gas, budget deficit of the government and liquidity on the business cycle. So far, few studies have been done about the impact of business cycles on agricultural sector. Therefore, in this paper, the long-run business cycles components and irregular shocks have been extracted from real GDP and the effect of business cycle on production, employment and investment in agricultural sector of Iran has been studied. Real GDP over the period of 1973 to 2013 were separated using Hodric-Presscott filter and then the cyclical properties of key variables affecting business cycles were calculated and analyzed. The simultaneous equations method is used to evaluate the impact of business cycles on production, employment and investment in agricultural sector. Results showed that business cycles have had a significant and positive effect on agricultural value added, and   negative effect on employment and investment in agricultural sector. Therefore, it is recommended that in the years of economic prosperity the government should pay more attention to investment in agriculture, so that the economic sector would be a better helping to reduce the price of oil and gas, which is the main cause of economic recession in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The business cycle
  • Real GDP
  • Agricultural value added
  • Agricultural sector employment
  • Agricultural sector investment
  • Three-stage least squares method

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