تحلیل تجربی عوامل موثر بر موفقیت هدف‌گذاری تورم در ایران: با تاکید بر شفافیت و پاسخ‌گویی بانک مرکزی

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر اقتصاد

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه خاتم

3 بدون سمت

10.22080/iejm.2019.14582.1612

چکیده

یکی از اهداف مهم سیاست پولی، ثبات قیمت‌ها است که در این چارچوب یکی از موفقترین رویکردهای معرفی شده در دهه‌های اخیر هدف‌گذاری تورم است. در مقاله حاضر عوامل موثر بر هدف‌گذاری تورم از جمله استقلال و شفافیت بانک مرکزی، نااطمینانی تورم، حداقل دستمزدهای اسمی، پایه پولی و نرخ ارز در ایران برای بازه زمانی 1395-1357 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور در ابتدا میزان استقلال بانک مرکزی با استفاده از روش مولفه اساسی (PCA) محاسبه و سپس به بررسی عوامل موثر بر شکاف نرخ تورم از مقدار هدف پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که استقلال بانک مرکزی و شفافیت و تعهد به پاسخگویی دارای اثر منفی و معناداری بر شکاف تورم از تورم هدف است. همچنین حداقل دستمزدهای اسمی، پایه پولی، نرخ ارز، نااطمینانی تورم دارای اثر مثبت بر شکاف تورم از تورم هدف می‌باشد. بر این اساس برای رسیدن به نرخ تورم هدف، می‌بایست پیش‌شرط‌های لازم جهت اتخاذ این سیاست پولی فراهم گردد. همچنین از آنجا که نرخ ارز از جمله متغیرهای اثرگذار بر نرخ تورم است و تأثیر زیادی بر نرخ تورم کشور دارد، لذا انجام یک سیاست تجاری و ارزی نتایج زیادی را می‌تواند بر دستیابی به اهداف تورمی داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Success of Inflation Targeting in Iran, Emphasizing the Transparency and Accountability of the Central Bank

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yekta Ashrafi 1
  • roozbeh balounejad nouri 2
  • Fateme Jahangard 3
1 پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی
2 Khatam University
3 پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی
چکیده [English]

One of the main goals of monetary policy is price stability, and in this framework is one of the most successful approaches introduced in recent decades of inflation targeting. In this paper, factors influencing inflation targeting such as central bank independence and transparency, inflation uncertainty, Minimum nominal wages, monetary base, and exchange rate in Iran for the time period of 1978-2017 were investigated. First, we calculated the Central Bank independence by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and then, we investigated the factors affecting inflation target. The results showed that central bank independence and transparency and commitment to accountability had a negative and significant effect on the inflation gap from the target inflation. Minimum nominal wages, monetary base, exchange rate, the uncertainty of inflation have a positive effect on the inflation gap of the target inflation. Therefore, in order to achieve the inflation target, the preconditions for the adoption of this monetary policy should be provided. Furthermore, since the exchange rate is one of the variables that influence the inflation rate and has a major impact on the inflation rate of the country, so having a trading and exchange rate policy can have many results on achieving inflation goals.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inflation targeting
  • Independence and Transparency of the Central Bank
  • Monetary Policy

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