بررسی علل و آثار توهم مالی در ایران طی سال‌های 1393-1357

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکده‌ی علوم اقتصادی ، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

2 مسئول کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد شهری

10.22080/iejm.2019.14174.1595

چکیده

توهم مالی منبع بی‌اعتمادی بین دولت و مردم است؛ که می‌تواند بر عملکرد اقتصاد کشور در بخش رسمی اثر بگذارد و میزان متغیّرهای اقتصاد کلان نظیر بودجه دولت و درآمدهای مالیاتی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. توهم مالی از کانال بودجه دولت، رشد اقتصادی کشورها را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. این پدیده بیشتر در کشورهایی اتفاق می‌افتد که در آنها درآمد و هزینه­های دولت به‌طور کامل توسط مؤدیان مالیاتی شناخته و یا کنترل نمی­شوند؛ در نتیجه این امر، منجر به افزایش تقاضا برای کالاها و خدمات عمومی و افزایش هزینه­های دولت می شود. هدف این مطالعه بررسی علل و پیامدهای توهم مالی در ایران طی سال­های ‌93-‌57 است. در این مطالعه توهم مالی در چارچوب الگوی ارتباطات خطی ساختاری نرم ‌‌افزار لیزرل[1]تصریح و با استفاده از داد‌های بانک مرکزی و مرکز آمار ایران طی سال‌های 93-57، برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند مهم‌ترین متغیر تعیین‌کننده اندازه توهم مالی در ایران، بار مالیاتی است؛ که سیاست‌‌گذاران سعی در پنهان‌کردن این با‌ر مالیاتی از طریق ایجاد توهم بدهی دولت و توهم مخارج مصرفی بخش خصوصی نسبت به سطوح بدهی عمومی را دارند.
واژه‌های کلیدی: توهم مالی، الگوی ارتباطات خطّی ساختاری، توهم بدهی



* این مقاله با مشاوره و راهنمایی دکتر اسماعیل صفرزاده انجام گرفته است.
1. LISRE: Linear Structural Relationships
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Causes and Effects of Fiscal Illusions in Iran During 1978-2014

نویسندگان [English]

  • fatemeh bazzazan 1
  • sahar Zare Joneghani 2
  • Ali Moridian 3
1 Associate professor, Department of Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 M.A. in Economic Development and Planning, Alzahra university, Teharan, Iran
3 Masters of Urban Economics
چکیده [English]

The fiscal illusion is the source of distrust between the government and the people, which can affect the performance of the country's economy in the formal sector and affect the variables of macroeconomics such as government budget and tax revenues. The fiscal illusions of the state budget channel affect the economic growth of countries. This phenomenon is most likely to occur in countries where government incomes and expenditures are not fully recognized or controlled by taxpayers; as a result, they increase demand for goods and services and increase government spending. The purpose of this study is to investigate the Causes and results of fiscal illusion and Process it's in Iran during the years of 1978-2014. in this study, the fiscal illusions in the context of the model of LISRE software (Linear Structural Relationships) are specified and measured by the data given from the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran during the years of 1978-2014. The results indicate that the most important determinant of the size of fiscal illusions in Iran is the tax burden that policymakers try to conceal by creating government debt illusions and illusions of private sector expenditures on public debt levels.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Illusion
  • Linear Structural Relationships Model
  • Lisrel

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