تأثیر نامتقارن نرخ ارز حقیقی بر فقر: نقش انتقالات پولی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استایار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد/ دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

این مطالعه با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم تابلویی، تأثیر آستانه­ای نرخ ارز حقیقی بر فقر را از طریق کانال انتقالات پولی و در 12 کشور در حال توسعه منتخب طی دوره زمانی 2017-1980 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. نتایج آزمون خطی بودن، وجود رابطه غیرخطی میان متغیرهای مورد مطالعه را تأیید می­کند. همچنین به منظور بررسی رابطه غیرخطی میان متغیرهای مورد بررسی لحاظ نمودن یک تابع انتقال با یک پارامتر آستانه­ای که بیانگر یک مدل دو رژیمی است کفایت می­کند. حد آستانه­ای متغیر انتقال برابر 87/5 و پارامتر شیب نیز برابر 76/1 برآورد شده­است. یعنی تازمانیکه نسبت انتقالات پولی به تولید کمتر از 87/5 درصد باشد، رفتار متغیرها مطابق رژیم اول خواهد بود و در صورتی­که از این مقدار تجاوز کند، رفتار متغیرها طبق رژیم دوم خواهد بود. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل، انتقالات پولی، تولید سرانه و نرخ ارز حقیقی در رژیم­های اول و دوم دارای اثرات ناهمسویی  بوده­اند، به طوری­که نرخ ارز حقیقی و انتقالات پولی در رژیم اول تاثیر مثبت بر فقر داشته و با عبور از حد آستانه­ای انتقالات پولی، تاثیر مثبت بر فقر دارند. متغیر تولید سرانه در هر دو رژیم تاثیر منفی بر فقر داشته است، ولی تاثیر آن در رژیم دوم یعنی سطح بالای انتقالات پولی کمتر بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Poverty: The Role of Remittances

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Rezazadeh 1
  • Tohid Ghasemnejad 2
1 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 MA in Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

This paper investigates the effects of the asymmetric threshold of real exchange rate on poverty through the remittances channel in the 12 selected developing countries during the period of 1980-2017, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables. The results indicate that threshold value for studying countries is 5.87 and the estimated slope parameter is 1.76. Based on the results of model estimation, remittances, GDP per capita and real exchange rate in both the first and second regimes have inconsistent effects on poverty. Remittances and logarithm of exchange rate have positive effect on poverty in first regime and have negative effect in second regime. Also the GDP per capita has negative effect on poverty in both of the regimes, but its effect was less in the second regime.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange rate
  • Poverty
  • Remittances
  • PSTR
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